CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T13:25ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32317/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is the M8.7 flare peaking at 2024-07-29T12:55Z from AR 3762 with associated dimming, EUV wave, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-31T12:45Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1077.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1147.59 Acceleration: -3.11505 % Compiled module: CALDAT. Duration in seconds: 170404.25 Duration in days: 1.9722714 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -3.12 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 616.8 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 31/07/2024 Time: 12:45 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 51.43 hour(s)
Difference: 28.03 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2024-07-30T13:21Z
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